Eric Surkamp, the perfect trade bait for this years trading deadline

I tried to register at the 49erswebzone because I wanted to make a post in the Giants thread over there.

I was supposed to get a confirmation within 15 minutes but it has been a few hours without any confirmation. I registered as Giantdave

I would like to be able to make this post in that thread and I am responding to this post made by Ninerjohn

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/th...52802&page=538

I have been lurking since last year reading this thread with great interest since it’s one of the best places where good Giants talk is taking place. I especially enjoy reading Ninerjohn’s posts in this thread. I certainly agree with Ninerjohn that Belt and Wheeler are elite prospects, who should not be traded.

Regarding Gary Brown, I view him as a big time impact prospect as well, so I count three rather than two impact prospects. In short, a prospect who plays good defensive centerfield, could post and on base percentage around .350 or better at the leadoff spot in the batting order, and can wreck havoc on the bases is an impact prospect as far as I’m concerned.

What prompted me to sign up was to debate the issue of Eric Surkamp. While many may view him as untouchable, I view him as the perfect type of trade bait to build a package around to try to get Jose Reyes. When it comes to pitching prospects it’s important to differentiate between who projects as top end starter, and who projects as someone whose ceiling is a back end of a rotation starter.

Someone who projects to be a top end starter is someone who you hold onto (Zach Wheeler)

Someone who projects to be a #4 or #5 starter at best is the perfect type of pitching prospect to hype up and trade for a Type A rental. First we would get an all star caliber shortstop in Jose Reyes for the stretch run to defend our title, while at the same time booting Miguel Tejada off the team. Then we would also get two draft picks for the 2012 draft. We would get a first round sandwich pick, a second rounder which could be a first rounder depending on which team signs him. This would give Jim Barr and the scouting staff two more shots at drafting an impact player whose ceiling would much higher than a #4 or #5 starter.

Even if these two draft picks don’t turn into anything special, it shouldn’t be over ally difficult to acquire or sign a #4 or #5 starter without paying too much money. In other words someone who won’t be more than a #4 is easily replaceable. In fact Ryan Vogelsong is doing a great job right now as a #5 starter.

In conclusion, to me it would be a no brainer to pull the trigger for Jose Reyes for the stretch run plus two extra quality draft picks for the 2012 draft for a package of prospects whose ceilings will amount to no greater than a back end starter, middle relievers, fourth outfielders, and back up middle infielders.

There is no way the Mets trade Jose Reyes without getting a pitching prospect in return. Eric Surkamp is this year’s best trade bait rather than being an untouchable prospect. If I’m Sabean, I’m going to try to hype up Erick Surkamp and try to convince the Mets to take him as the center piece in lieu of Zach Wheeler.

Surkamp and JSanchez for Reyes. I have no problem with that.

In theory, I have no issue with trading Jonathon Sanchez. The problem is we don’t have any rotation depth right now where we would be able to replace him with.

The way I look at Sanchez is we tender him for 2012, and let him walk after the 2012 season.

By 2013 Wheeler should be near ready to go. Also, there will be a higher number of free agents after the 2012 season.

After 2012 season I envision a rotation which looks like this

1) Lincecum (Must Lock up long term)
2) Cain (Must Lock up long term)
3) Bumgarner
4) Wheeler
5) TBD could be a break out prospect, acquisition from a trade, or a cheap FA signing, however this would be one of the easiest spots to fill

Originally posted by GiantDave:
In theory, I have no issue with trading Jonathon Sanchez. The problem is we don’t have any rotation depth right now where we would be able to replace him with.

The way I look at Sanchez is we tender him for 2012, and let him walk after the 2012 season.

By 2013 Wheeler should be near ready to go. Also, there will be a higher number of free agents after the 2012 season.

After 2012 season I envision a rotation which looks like this

1) Lincecum (Must Lock up long term)
2) Cain (Must Lock up long term)
3) Bumgarner
4) Wheeler
5) TBD could be a break out prospect, acquisition from a trade, or a cheap FA signing, however this would be one of the easiest spots to fill

I like that starting rotation, especially with no Zito.

Just so I stay consistent with what I write over at the 49ers webzone I am for trading Jonathon Sanchez as long as we get a back end starter in a separate deal so we would have the pitching depth to make such a deal.

Eric Sur-K-amp
By Rory Paap, on May 20th, 2011

The Giants’ No. 1 pitching prospect is Zack Wheeler, and there’s really no question about it. He was a high school pitcher plucked out of the first round, much like Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain, and he possesses a mid-nineties fastball (with sink) that’s swell enough to make even the coolest-minded scouts drool. Despite his pedigree, he’s not the Giants’ current ‘Minor League Starter Most Likely to Make the Show First.’ That title belongs to another.

Eric Surkamp was a sixth-round draft pick out of North Carolina State in 2008. In his first full professional season, he dominated the Sally League, striking out 169 batters (11.61 per nine innings) with an excellent strikeout to walk ratio (4.33). As a season cap, he whiffed 12 batters to pitch the San Jose Giants to the Cal-League championship. Still, the fact that he’d been a college pitcher dispatching raw prospects was enough to allow talent evaluators to ignore him for a while longer.

In 2010, he continued to dominate hitters in High-A (San Jose) before going down with a season-ending hip injury. To that point, he’d made 17 starts with an excellent 9.59 strikeout rate while walking fewer than two batters per nine (4.91 K/BB ratio). And as he had in the Sally League, he’d been keeping the ball in the park for the most part as well (0.41 HR/9 in 2009, .044 in ’10).

Apparently, the injury, the fact that his only full (and impressive) season came as a college arm in Low-A, and the lack of a fastball above 90 mph, was enough to keep him off the radar for the most part coming in to 2011. On most Top-Ten lists, he garnered an honorable mention or barely made the cut. For most, whether or not he could continue his success in Double-A was the big test; it’s been said a few times that Double-A sorts the pretenders from the real-deal prospects that happen to be on the cusp.

Well, so far, so good.

Surkamp, who hails from Cincinati, Ohio, is missing more bats than ever. He’s made seven starts and thus far has a 1.88 ERA to go with 56 punch outs in just 38.1 innings. That’s good for a 13.15 K/9 rate. He is, however, walking a few more batters thus far with a 3.99 walk rate. Still, his 3.29 K/BB ratio is plenty impressive in the Eastern League. As far as giving up the long ball, he’s given up three so far for a rate of 0.70 per nine.

The fantastic start to his season hasn’t made total believers out of anyone, but it has grabbed the attention of people like Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus who had this to say recently:

All of his pitches play up due to a delivery than [sic] involves hiding the ball behind his head until nearly the moment of delivery. It’s hard to say what Surkamp is right now other than very good statistically, and he’ll likely get a chance to prove his game can work at Triple-A at some point in the second half of this season.

He also mentioned this about Surkamp a few weeks ago:

Surkamp rarely gets even to 90 mph with his fastball, but he’s proof that velocity isn’t everything when it comes to missing bats. Tall and angular with a low ¾ crossfire delivery that is hard to pick up, Surkamp’s deception, combined with above-average command and control, gives hitters fits, as does his ability to mix in a quality curveball and changeup at any point in the count… he’s quickly proving that his style can work at the upper levels, which is doing wonders for his prospect stock.

If there’s one thing I find most interesting about his stats page, though, it’s his career average on balls in play (BABiP) numbers. In two very abbreviated stints in 2008, he posted a .500 and .442 BABiP, which is obviously extremely high. In 2009, he posted a .369 which probably does a lot to explain why his ERA was good but not great at 3.30. In 2010, it was much more normal at .288 in the California League. But, in 2011, it’s currently sitting at .342 which seems pretty high to me. I wonder how better defenses will help him in that area as he climbs the ladder.

I wouldn’t say anyone is completely sold on Surkamp, but he’s doing everything possible to prove early doubters wrong. Without being a heralded international signing or a top pick, as well as lacking a dominating fastball, he’ll likely stay under the radar for a while. But if he continues to pitch like he has, missing bats while keeping the walks at a minimum, he’ll likely be headed to Triple-A at some point this season to see if his stuff continues to play well there.

The Giants came into the season with almost zero starting pitching depth. Luckily, Ryan Vogelsong has been a nice story and, if he continues to pitch well, will give the Giants six options when Barry Zito returns. But outside of those six starters, if one or two of them goes down or gets moved for some reason, Surkamp is probably the mostly likely to step in over the next 12 months, and not Wheeler.

I think we discussed it in another thread. I am with you that pursuing a Jack Wilson type short stop may be the better way to go. Since he would shore up the defensive side of the left and would only cost one or two second tier prospects.

Between the defensive upgrade from a Jack Wilson type shortstop for the left side of the infield, an offensive upgrade when Pablo returns, and another offensive upgrade when Brandon Belt gets promoted, this may be enough while keeping the starting pitching intact and holding onto our pitching prospects.


Regards to Eric Surkamp, even though he won't ever be a top end guy, he is someone worth keeping around if we could at least get a defensive up grade at short stop without coughing him up.

This because if he is just an effective #4 or #5 pitcher we could still get around four good seasons out of him while paying him the major league minimum or near it. Once he gets to the last year or two of arbitration where he would be due hefty wages, then at that point we would non tender him. None the less it's possible we could get around four productive seasons out of him at a cheap price.

It's not that I'm against trading a young prospect, my issue is what it would cost to sign Reyes who is set to go FA at the end of the season. As everyone probably knows Tim's contract runs out this year and we obviously need to get him signed. Then Wilson and Cain both go FA the year after that. If we want to keep those three (and I know I do!) I'm not sure that leaves room for a Reyes size contract.

If that's the case then the best we can get from Reyes would be to rent him for the rest of this season, something I wouldn't be opposed to given our need at SS, but I wouldn't want to give up J. Sanchez. I guess Surkamp would work for me. Reyes does fit perfectly for what the Giants need right now and could make them pretty scary. (dare I say repeat scary?)

The more I thought about it, if we just get a SS who is good defensively and has range, we should have enough offense from 1-7 with the editions of Sandoval and Belt, while keeping the pitching intact.

This type of SS shouldn't cost as much as Jose Reyes.